Nov 8, 2018 

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SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS

SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS ( 9:30 am ET )
       
DIRTY TANKER (KT - $/day) VOYAGE SPOT TCE EARNINGS 2018 AVG. RATE
VLCC, 270   AG-FE 50,400 14,300
Suezmax, 130  WAF-UKC 29,600 7,000
Aframax, 70 CAR-USG 45,100 10,300
Panamax, 50  CAR-USG 24,200 7,800
       
CLEAN TANKER (KT - $/day) VOYAGE SPOT TCE EARNINGS 2018 AVG. RATE
MR, 37  UKC-USAC 8,400 6,000
MR, 38  USG-UKC 4,400 1,000
       
TIME CHARTER (KDWT) 1YR ECO RATE ($/day) NEWBUILD PRICE ($M ) SECONDHAND 5YR PRICE ($M)
VLCC , 200+ 31,000 90.0 62.0
Suezmax, 130-200 21,000 60.0 44.0
Aframax, 80-130 17,250 50.0 30.0
LR2, 80-130 16,750 52.0 31.0
LR1, 60-80 13,750 43.0 26.0
MR, 42-60 13,500 36.0 26.0
Handymax. 30-42 12,500 33.0 23.0
       
US FLAG (KT - $/day) VOYAGE WEEKLY SPOT RATE 2018 AVG. RATE
Handy, 38 USG-USAC 56,116 60,985
       
LNG ($/day) WEEKLY SPOT RATE CURRENT MONTH RATE 2018 AVG. RATE
160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (West) 110,000 110,000 73,432
138-150M3 Steam turbine (West) 80,000 80,000 52,318
160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (East) 155,500 155,000 69,023
138-150M3 Steam turbine (East) 105,000 105,000 45,864
       
LPG (KT) LAST POSTED SPOT RATE ($/mt) SPOT TCE RATE ($/day) 1yr TIME CHARTER RATE ($/day)                    
VLGC, 44 (AG-Japan) 40.57 19,243 21,382
       
BUNKERS ($/mt) IFO 380  MDO   
US Gulf 443.0 716.5  
Rotterdam 443.5 647.5  
Singapore 512.5 691.5  

ENERGY NEWS

Norwegian oil, gas plants shut following tanker-frigate collision.

The accident resulted in injuries and the shutdown of a North Sea crude export terminal, the largest gas processing plant in the country and several offshore fields. Equinor announced the shutdown of the Kollsnes gas plant, with a capacity of 144.5M cbm. It remains unclear when it would restart operations. The plant plays an instrumental role as it processes gas from Troll and other fields and sends it to Britain and the rest of Europe. Output from the Troll A platform has been shut. Wholesale prices in the UK had already increased prior to the accident and surged further after. Outages at Kollsens drove flows from Norway to Britain down by 14-15M cbm. There are no signs of leakage from the Sola TS (Suezmax), though the tanker will return to port for inspection. The tanker loaded crude from Equinor's Sture oil shipment terminal, which was also shut as a precautionary measure, pushing Brent higher. 

Reuters Nov. 8 2018

Poland's PGNiG continues efforts to break Russian gas stranglehold.

The state-owned energy firm announced a 24-year deal with Cheniere for LNG deliveries, beginning 2019. This comes three weeks following PGNiG's two 20-year deals with subsidiaries of Venture Global LNG for deliveries that will start in 202, when the existing deal with Russia's Gazprom expires. Poland imports almost two-thirds of its gas from Russia, but after Moscow showed its use of gas as a geopolitical tool in Ukraine, Warsaw is aiming to reduce its dependence on Moscow. The start of the Nord Stream II pipeline, which will deliver Russian gas to Germany while bypassing Poland and Ukraine has also raised Poland's concerns.

FT Nov. 8, 2018

Toshiba exits US LNG business.

The Japanese conglomerate will pay China's ENN Ecological Holdings Co more than $800M to take over its US LNG unit as part of a strategy to rid of money-losing assets. Asian LNG prices have sunk 42% since the announcement of the venture five years ago, and the potential for further losses pushed Toshiba's exit. The Japanese firm will sell its Toshiba America LNG unit to ENN Ecological for $15M. Once the sale is completed, Toshiba will make a one-off payment of $821M to ENN to pass on its $7B commitment to purchase 2.2 mmta of LNG from Freeport starting 2020.

Reuters Nov. 8, 2018

Construction commences on 220 MW solar park in Mexico.

Investment in the construction of the Magdalena II is expected to be around $165M, said Enel Green Power Mexico. The EIA describes Mexico's market for solar photovoltaic as "nascent" but adds that it is expected to grow quickly. Global solar PV capacity hit 398 GW last year, producing more than 460 TWh, nearly 2% of global power output.

CNBC Nov. 8, 2018

COMMODITIES

COMMODITIES, (9:30 am ET )
         
CRUDE SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
Brent  ICE $/bbl 71.69 -0.38
WTI NYMEX $/bbl 61.32 -0.35
Dubai (Spot) Bloomberg $/bbl 71.28 +0.34
         
PRODUCTS SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
RBOB Gasoline  NYMEX ₵/gal 165.33 +0.59
Heating Oil  NYMEX ₵/gal 220.88 -2.83
         
NATURAL GAS SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
US Henry Hub  NYMEX $/MMBtu 3.54 -0.01
UK National Balancing Point ICE $/MMBtu 8.94 +0.11
         
NATURAL GAS  LIQUIDS SOURCE LAST PRICE (₵/gal) LAST PRICE ($/mt) Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE(₵/gal)
US Mont Belvieu Propane (Spot) Bloomberg 76.75 400.07 -3.87
         
PRICE SPREADS ($/bbl) SOURCE LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
Brent 3-2-1 Crack  ICE 5.17 +0.19

MARKETS

MARKETS, ( 9:30 am ET )
         
EQUITIES REGION/COUNTRY LAST VALUE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
S&P 500 United States 2,813.89 +58.44
FTSE 100 United Kingdom 7,147.25 +29.97
DAX Germany 11,559.87 -19.23
Nikkei Japan 22,486.92 +401.12
SH Composite China 2,635.63 -5.71
         
CURRENCIES REGION/COUNTRY LAST VALUE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
£/$ United Kingdom 1.31 -0.00
€/$ European Union 1.14 +0.00
$/JPY ¥ Japan 113.63 +0.11
$/CNY ¥ China 6.94 +0.02

MARKET ANALYSIS

  • Asphalt: Gulf Coast retail asphalt prices were steady last week, with flux prices slipping in some locations.
  • LNG: Requirements continued to surface last week both from EC and WC Australia for Dec. loadings although a lack of vessels available and bullish rate expectations are seeing charterers opt to sell rather than charter in. 
  • LPG: Between June 2016 and June 2018, VLGC spot rates on a TCE basis averaged just $400,000 pcm as a raft of newbuild supply flooded the market.
  • Oil prices fall as global supplies continue to increase. 

EIA US WEEKLY ENDING STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(Nov. 3, 2017 - Nov. 2, 2018)

DOE US INVENTORY (mb) Week ended Nov. 2 Δ Prior week Δ Prior year
Crude 431.79 5.78 -25.36
Distillate 122.86 -3.47 -2.71
Gasoline 228.02 1.85 18.48

EIA US WEEKLY ENDING STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(Nov. 3, 2017 - Nov. 2, 2018)

EIA US weekly ending stocks Nov 8, 2018

POTEN EVENTS

Nov. 8-9: LNG101: Energy for a Cleaner Future Business Training. Poten and NYU hosting. 

WORLD EVENTS

Nov. 7: EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30am, ET. 

Nov. 8: EIA Natural Gas Report, 11:00am, Et. 

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