Oct 12, 2018 

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SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS

SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS ( 10:15 am ET )
       
DIRTY TANKER (KT - $/day) VOYAGE SPOT TCE EARNINGS 2018 AVG. RATE
VLCC, 270   AG-FE 37,500 11,800
Suezmax, 130  WAF-UKC 20,900 5,700
Aframax, 70 CAR-USG 21,900 7,600
Panamax, 50  CAR-USG 5,400 6,700
       
CLEAN TANKER (KT - $/day) VOYAGE SPOT TCE EARNINGS 2018 AVG. RATE
MR, 37  UKC-USAC 5,000 6,100
MR, 38  USG-UKC 300 600
       
TIME CHARTER (KDWT) 1YR ECO RATE ($/day) NEWBUILD PRICE ($M ) SECONDHAND 5YR PRICE ($M)
VLCC , 200+ 26,000 90.0 61.0
Suezmax, 130-200 19,000 60.0 42.0
Aframax, 80-130 16,500 48.0 29.0
LR2, 80-130 15,250 50.0 30.0
LR1, 60-80 13,750 43.0 26.0
MR, 42-60 13,500 36.0 25.5
Handymax. 30-42 12,500 33.0 23.0
       
US FLAG (KT - $/day) VOYAGE WEEKLY SPOT RATE 2018 AVG. RATE
Handy, 38 USG-USAC 55,965 61,345
       
LNG ($/day) WEEKLY SPOT RATE CURRENT MONTH RATE 2018 AVG. RATE
160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (West) 90,000 90,000 70,525
138-150M3 Steam turbine (West) 68,000 68,000 49,975
160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (East) 110,000 110,000 61,425
138-150M3 Steam turbine (East) 70,000 70,000 41,075
       
LPG (KT) LAST POSTED SPOT RATE ($/mt) SPOT TCE RATE ($/day)  1yr TIME CHARTER RATE ($/day)                    
VLGC, 44 (AG-Japan) 47.93 27,138 19,737
       
BUNKERS ($/mt) IFO 380  MDO   
US Gulf 464.5 760.0  
Rotterdam 474.5 711.0  
Singapore 517.5 744.5  

ENERGY NEWS

Natural gas storage likely to enter winter at multi-year low.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that natural gas inventories will reach 3,263 Bcf at the end of Oct., the lowest level for Us natural gas inventories since 2005. Extremely cold temperatures in Apr. 2018 delayed the start of natural gas storage refill season by nearly four weeks. That in addition to the high withdrawal levels in Jan. 2018 led to storage levels that have remained lower than the previous five-year minimum. With that said, the late-season injections over the past four weeks (81Bcf) have been close to their five-year averages (82 Bcf). Growth in domestic production of natural gas coupled with infrastructure expansion may have reduced the need for operators to store as much natural gas. 

EIA Oct. 12, 2018

China's Sept. crude imports climb to four month high.

Chinese daily crude oil imports in Sept. hit their highest levels since Sept. according to customs data, as independent refiners seeks to build up inventory ahead of winter. Imports last month were 9.05 mbpd, up from 9.04 mbpd in Aug., a third consecutive monthly rise. Chinese crude imports have risen 6% during the first nine months of the year from the same period in 2017. Some independent refiners, known as teapots, are concerned that higher oil prices could deter their profit margins. 

Reuters Oct. 12, 2018

IEA lowers oil demand growth expectations.

The International Energy Agency said oil demand growth will grow at a slower pace than previously predicted as trade tensions escalate and higher oil prices put some pressure on the global economy. Growth estimates for 2018 and 2019 have been softened by 110,000 bpd to 1.3 mbpd and 1.4 mbpd, respectively. The IEA revisions to demand growth follow similar estimates by OPEC. 

FT Oct. 12, 2018

Ecuador and Peru discuss exploring oil and gas blocks.

The two neighboring countries are in talks to jointly explore two oilfields at the border and allow state-run Petromazonas to operate natural gas areas in Peru, said the Ecuadorian Energy Minister. Earlier this year, Ecuador awarded foreign and domestic energy firms exploration and production rights for four oil blocks in the Andean country. It plans to continue offering areas through an onshore auction later this year and another in 2019 for natural gas blocks off the Pacific. The jointly produced crude would go to feed Peru's 65,000 bpd Talara refinery via an existing pipeline. Meanwhile, the jointly-produced natural gas in Peru would be exported to Ecuador to offset a shortage. Ecuador is opening up, allowing operators to export oil independently. 

Reuters Oct. 11, 2018

COMMODITIES

COMMODITIES, (9:35 am ET )
         
CRUDE SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
Brent  ICE $/bbl 80.94 +0.68
WTI NYMEX $/bbl 71.73 +0.76
Dubai (Spot) Bloomberg $/bbl 79.33 -0.66
         
PRODUCTS SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
RBOB Gasoline  NYMEX ₵/gal 195.22 +1.95
Heating Oil  NYMEX ₵/gal 233.98 +0.76
         
NATURAL GAS SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
US Henry Hub  NYMEX $/MMBtu 3.20 -0.02
UK National Balancing Point ICE $/MMBtu 9.48 +0.33
         
NATURAL GAS  LIQUIDS SOURCE LAST PRICE (₵/gal) LAST PRICE ($/mt) Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE(₵/gal)
US Mont Belvieu Propane (Spot) Bloomberg 96.38 502.40 -4.37
         
PRICE SPREADS ($/bbl) SOURCE LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
Brent 3-2-1 Crack  ICE 6.45 -0.03

MARKETS

MARKETS, ( 9:35 am ET )
         
EQUITIES REGION/COUNTRY LAST VALUE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
S&P 500 United States 2,728.37 -57.31
FTSE 100 United Kingdom 7,055.23 +48.30
DAX Germany 11,625.70 +86.35
Nikkei Japan 22,694.66 +103.80
SH Composite China 2,606.91 +23.45
         
CURRENCIES REGION/COUNTRY LAST VALUE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
£/$ United Kingdom 1.32 -0.00
€/$ European Union 1.16 -0.00
$/JPY ¥ Japan 112.25 +0.09
$/CNY ¥ China 6.92 +0.03

MARKET ANALYSIS

  • Asphalt: Rockies retail markets were mostly unchanged last week. Wholesale prices slipped for Oct. 
  • LNG: Available tonnage last week remained at low levels in both basins, with 5 vessels prompt at some point during the week.
  • LPG: Qatar Petroleum was rumored to have sold another full propane cargo last week with an early Nov. laycan to a Chinese importer. No price or buyer details were heard. 
  • Oil prices recover but remain pressured by weaker demand expectations. 

DOE US INVENTORY (mb)

OCT. POSTED / SPOT PRICES ($/mt) Propane Butane
Saudi Aramco 655.00 655.00
Sonatrach 625.00 655.00
OPIS North Sea 606.00 650.50
Spot AG 630.50 630.50
CFR Japan 662.25 672.75

EIA US WORKING NATURAL GAS IN UNDERGROUND STORAGE 
(Nov. 2016 - Nov. 2018)    

EIA US working natural gas in underground storage Oct 12

POTEN EVENTS

Oct. 16-19: CWC Asia Pacific Summit, Singapore. Poten sponsoring, Stephen Thompson speaking. 

Nov. 8-9: LNG101: Energy for a Cleaner Future Business Training. Poten and NYU hosting. 

WORLD EVENTS

Oct. 12: Baker Hughes Rig Count, 1:00pm, ET.

Oct. 17: EIA  Petroleum Status Report, 10:30am, ET. 

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