Sept 13, 2018 

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SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS

SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS ( 9:15 am ET )
       
DIRTY TANKER (KT - $/day) VOYAGE SPOT TCE EARNINGS 2018 AVG. RATE
VLCC, 270   AG-FE 15,600 10,400
Suezmax, 130  WAF-UKC 7,200 5,200
Aframax, 70 CAR-USG 16,700 6,600
Panamax, 50  CAR-USG 10,700 6,700
       
CLEAN TANKER (KT - $/day) VOYAGE SPOT TCE EARNINGS 2018 AVG. RATE
MR, 37  UKC-USAC 3,600 6,500
MR, 38  USG-UKC (900) 600
       
TIME CHARTER (KDWT) 1YR ECO RATE ($/day) NEWBUILD PRICE ($M ) SECONDHAND 5YR PRICE ($M)
VLCC , 200+ 26,000 90.0 61.0
Suezmax, 130-200 19,000 60.0 42.0
Aframax, 80-130 16,500 48.0 29.0
LR2, 80-130 15,500 50.0 30.0
LR1, 60-80 13,750 43.0 26.0
MR, 42-60 13,750 36.0 25.5
Handymax. 30-42 12,500 33.0 23.0
       
US FLAG (KT - $/day) VOYAGE WEEKLY SPOT RATE 2018 AVG. RATE
Handy, 38 USG-USAC 56,035 62,089
       
LNG ($/day) WEEKLY SPOT RATE CURRENT MONTH RATE 2018 AVG. RATE
160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (West) 86,000 86,000 68,083
138-150M3 Steam turbine (West) 68,000 68,000 47,972
160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (East) 78,000 78,000 57,278
138-150M3 Steam turbine (East) 60,000 60,000 38,278
       
LPG (KT) LAST POSTED SPOT RATE ($/mt) SPOT TCE RATE ($/day)                         1yr TIME CHARTER RATE ($/day)                    
VLGC, 44 (AG-Japan) 38.36 17,599 17,763
       
BUNKERS ($/mt) IFO 380  MDO   
US Gulf 438.5 720.0  
Rotterdam 430.0 660.0  
Singapore 466.0 698.5  

ENERGY NEWS

Hurricane Florence likely to affect Southeast US electric power, transportation fuels.

The storm's high winds and heavy rainfall are likely to impact energy infrastructure as it makes landfall in the Carolinas region. Evacuation has been ordered, which could disrupt normal business operations and affect electricity supply and demand patterns for transportation fuels. Demand for transportation fuels typically surges in the days preceding a hurricane in the affected areas, adding pressure on available local inventories. For the week ending Sept. 7, Lower Atlantic inventories of gasoline in the primary supply chain were 27.9 mb, 19% higher than the previous five-year average for that time of year. 

EIA Sept. 13, 2018

Supply uncertainty from Iran and Venezuela could tighten markets, warns IEA.

A supply squeeze could send prices well above $80 bbl should global producers fail to offset falling production from Venezuela and Impeding US sanctions on Iran's energy exports, said the International Energy Agency. Exports from Iran have already fallen by about 500,000 bpd since May as large consumers cut their purchases in compliance with US demands. OPEC has stepped in to make up for the shortage, with output rising to a nine-month high of 32.6 mbpd in Aug. However, it remains unclear how much more output from Venezuela and Iran could slip and how quickly other countries can offset that. According to the agency, OPEC has 2.7 mbpd of spare capacity, 60% of which is in Saudi Arabia.  

FT Sept. 13, 2018

Iranian crude floats as demand falls ahead of US sanctions.

Two tankers carrying Iranian condensate have been floating off the UAE for nearly a month due to falling demand. The tankers carrying a total of 2.4 mbpd of South Pars condensate have been floating since Aug. after South Korea halted imports from Iran and China's demand weakened in the summer. Emirates National Oil Company, another buyer of Iranian crude, has been asked by the government to replace Iranian volumes.

Reuters Sept. 13, 2018

Saudi Arabia ramps up efforts to counter NOPEC.

The kingdom has hired former Solicitor General Ted Olson as a lobbyist to campaign against the act. The Saudi embassy contracted with Olson's law firm to develop a white paper opposing the "NO Oil Producing and Exporting Cartel's Act" legislation. It would also prepare a legal analysis of the bill and write an op-ed against it. The firm could also be tasked with lobbying members of Congress and their staffs. In previous attempts by congress targeting OPEC, Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama threatened to use their veto power to prevent it becoming law. President Trump, however, has repeatedly criticized the group. The proposed US legislation could expose the organization, which is pumps about one-third of the world's crude, to antitrust lawsuits. 

Bloomberg Sept. 12, 2018

COMMODITIES

COMMODITIES, (9:45 am ET )
         
CRUDE SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
Brent  ICE $/bbl 79.06 -0.68
WTI NYMEX $/bbl 69.36 -1.01
Dubai (Spot) Bloomberg $/bbl 76.99 -0.07
         
PRODUCTS SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
RBOB Gasoline  NYMEX ₵/gal 201.98 -1.50
Heating Oil  NYMEX ₵/gal 225.09 -0.68
         
NATURAL GAS SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
US Henry Hub  NYMEX $/MMBtu 2.84 +0.01
UK National Balancing Point ICE $/MMBtu 9.19 -0.20
         
NATURAL GAS  LIQUIDS SOURCE LAST PRICE (₵/gal) LAST PRICE ($/mt) Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE(₵/gal)
US Mont Belvieu Propane (Spot) Bloomberg 107.50 560.37 -0.25
         
PRICE SPREADS ($/bbl) SOURCE LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
Brent 3-2-1 Crack  ICE 8.51 +0.16

MARKETS

MARKETS, ( 9:45 am ET )
         
EQUITIES REGION/COUNTRY LAST VALUE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
S&P 500 United States 2,888.92 +1.03
FTSE 100 United Kingdom 7,295.86 -17.50
DAX Germany 12,091.46 +59.16
Nikkei Japan 22,821.32 +216.71
SH Composite China 2,686.58 +30.47
         
CURRENCIES REGION/COUNTRY LAST VALUE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
£/$ United Kingdom 1.31 +0.01
€/$ European Union 1.17 +0.01
$/JPY ¥ Japan 111.54 +0.27
$/CNY ¥ China 6.83 -0.02

MARKET ANALYSIS

  • Asphalt: Gulf Coast retail asphalt prices firmed in some areas last week, with flux pricing unchanged.
  • LNG: Last week in the Atlantic, Project structural needs and re-export opportunities continued to stimulate the spot chartering market although the region remained relatively quiet in comparison to the Far East. 
  • LPG: The Mariner East 2 pipeline is expected to be in 'initial service' at the end of Q3 2018 after reaching 99% completion. 
  • Oil prices slip as economic concerns offset tighter supplies. 
  • Asian market relieved by US invite to China for trade talks. 

DOE US INVENTORY (mb)

Product Week ended            Sept. 7 Δ Prior week Δ Prior year
Crude 396.19 -5.30 -72.05
Distillate 139.28 6.16 -5.27
Gasoline 235.87 1.25 17.56

EIA US WEEKLY ENDING STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(Sept. 8 , 2017 - Sept. 7, 2018)

EIA US weekly ending stocks Sept 13, 2018

POTEN EVENTS

Sept. 17-20: Gastech, Barcelona, Poten sponsoring. 

WORLD EVENTS

Sept. 14: Baker Hughes Rig Count, 1:00pm, ET. 

Sept. 19: EIA Petroleum Status Report, 10:30am, ET

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