July 12, 2018 

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SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS

SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS ( 9:30 am ET )
       
DIRTY TANKER (KT - $/day) VOYAGE SPOT TCE EARNINGS 2018 AVG. RATE
VLCC, 270   AG-FE 9,500 9,300
Suezmax, 130  WAF-UKC 2,400 1,000
Aframax, 70 CAR-USG 1,900 6,300
Panamax, 50  CAR-USG 5,200 6,600
       
CLEAN TANKER (KT - $/day) VOYAGE SPOT TCE EARNINGS 2018 AVG. RATE
MR, 37  UKC-USAC 100 7,700
MR, 38  USG-UKC (400) 1,400
       
TIME CHARTER (KDWT) 1YR ECO RATE ($/day) NEWBUILD PRICE ($M ) SECONDHAND 5YR PRICE ($M)
VLCC , 200+ 26,000 88.0 61.5
Suezmax, 130-200 17,750 60.0 41.0
Aframax, 80-130 16,500 48.0 30.0
LR2, 80-130 16,750 50.0 31.0
LR1, 60-80 13,750 42.0 28.0
MR, 42-60 13,750 35.5 26.5
Handymax. 30-42 12,750 33.0 23.0
       
US FLAG (KT - $/day) VOYAGE WEEKLY SPOT RATE 2018 AVG. RATE
Handy, 38 USG-USAC 60,039 63,811
       
LNG ($/day) WEEKLY SPOT RATE CURRENT MONTH RATE 2018 AVG. RATE
160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (West) 76,000 76,000 65,185
138-150M3 Steam turbine (West) 58,000 58,000 44,481
160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (East) 65,000 65,000 54,222
138-150M3 Steam turbine (East) 45,000 45,000 35,407
       
LPG (KT) LAST POSTED SPOT RATE ($/mt) SPOT TCE RATE ($/day)                         1yr TIME CHARTER RATE ($/day)                    
VLGC, 44 (AG-Japan) 37.57 18,092 16,447
       
BUNKERS ($/mt) IFO 380  MDO   
US Gulf 455.0 667.5  
Rotterdam 440.5 641.5  
Singapore 472.0 667.0  

ENERGY NEWS

US oil exports to India surge ahead of sanctions on Iran.

US crude oil exports to India hit a new record in June. So far this year, the volumes are already double last year's total as refiners in India seek to replace Iranian and Venezuelan barrels. India is expected to import more than 15 mbpd of US crude this year through July, compared to 8 mb in all of 2017. This could increase, particularly if China imposes levies on its US oil imports, which would reduce Chinese purchases and lower US crude prices. The government has told its refiners to prepare for drastic decreases or even zero Iranian crude. As a result, some Indian refiners have finished testing runs of US oil this year, often by mixing it with heavier grades than their plants typically process.

Reuters July 12, 2018

IEA warns of tightening spare oil capacity.

The International Energy Agency said spare oil production capacity risks being "stretched to the limit" as global supply disruptions and US sanctions on Iran tighten the market. While rising oil prices may hinder demand growth, the key risk for the moment was supply capacity. The IEA estimates that only 2.1 mbpd of readily available spare capacity in three OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE. If Saudi Arabia raises output to near 11 mbpd this summer, as it has indicated, this would reduce the kingdom's spare capacity to "unprecedented" levels.

FT July 12, 2018

Crude prices fall in rising trade war China.

Crude fell by the most in twoyears, futures down 7%, as the US-China trade war escalates with planned US tariffs on Chinese goods of $200B. Last week, US stockpiles fell by 12.6 mb, while oil imports in the largest American refining region (TX and LA) dropped by 1.13 mb, the most in half a decade, and Libya announced plans to unleash more crude exports. Concern among some analysts is that trade tensions will drive the global economy into a slowdown and impact oil demand. The sectors targeted by tariffs in both countries include metals, energy and agricultural products. China has seven weeks to reach a deal or else face the looming tariffs.

Bloomberg July 11, 2018

Alaska officials remain confident on China natural gas partnership.

State officials said they were sure China will help the state achieve its goal of building a pipeline to transport stranded natural gas from the North Slope to markets, despite the currently-escalating US-China tensions. China is expected to buy 75% of LNG shipped through the future pipeline. The $43B project would send natural gas from the North Slope by pipeline to a liquefaction plant in Southern Alaska. The field is expected to produce about 3.5 Bcf/d. US-China tariffs, however, may threaten the project's development.

Reuters July 11, 2018

COMMODITIES

COMMODITIES, (9:45 am ET )
         
CRUDE SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
Brent  ICE $/bbl 73.68 0.28
WTI NYMEX $/bbl 70.41 0.03
Dubai (Spot) Bloomberg $/bbl 72.55 -1.83
         
PRODUCTS SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
RBOB Gasoline  NYMEX ₵/gal 207.18 1.04
Heating Oil  NYMEX ₵/gal 210.60 0.52
         
NATURAL GAS SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
US Henry Hub  NYMEX $/MMBtu 2.81 -0.02
UK National Balancing Point ICE $/MMBtu 7.50 -0.21
         
NATURAL GAS  LIQUIDS SOURCE LAST PRICE (₵/gal) LAST PRICE ($/mt) Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE(₵/gal)
US Mont Belvieu Propane (Spot) Bloomberg 94.25 491.30 -3.63
         
PRICE SPREADS ($/bbl) SOURCE LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
Brent 3-2-1 Crack  ICE 13.17 0.03

MARKETS

MARKETS, ( 9:45 am ET )
         
EQUITIES REGION/COUNTRY LAST VALUE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
S&P 500 United States 2,774.02 -19.82
FTSE 100 United Kingdom 7,646.47 54.51
DAX Germany 12,453.91 36.78
Nikkei Japan 22,187.96 255.75
SH Composite China 2,837.66 59.89
         
CURRENCIES REGION/COUNTRY LAST VALUE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
£/$ United Kingdom 1.32 0.00
€/$ European Union 1.17 0.00
$/JPY ¥ Japan 112.40 0.40
$/CNY ¥ China 6.67 -0.01

MARKET ANALYSIS

  • Asphalt: West Coast asphalt selling prices rose in the Rockies for July material last week. Demand stayed strong.
  • LNG: In the west, while July European reloads remained attractive last week, limited shipping options stalled some discussions. Shipping discussions continued to focus on Atlantic basin multi month opportunities.
  • LPG: Propane/propylene stocks increased by a shade under 2.9 mb last week, broadly in line with market expectations and a smaller build than observed the previous week at 4.3 mb.
  • Oil prices rebound as IEA warns of output capacity limits.
  • Wall street to recover as earnings hope to ease trade fears.
  • Asian markets rise, led by Chinese indexes.

DOE US INVENTORY (mb)

Product Week ended            July 6  Δ Prior week Δ Prior year
Crude 405.25 -12.63 -90.10
Distillate 121.68 4.13 -31.87
Gasoline 239.00 -0.69 3.34

EIA US WEEKLY ENDING STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(July 7, 2017 - July 6, 2018)

EIA US weekly ending stocks June 12, 2018

POTEN EVENTS

Sept. 17-20: Gastech, Barcelona, Poten sponsoring. 

WORLD EVENTS

July 13: Baker Hughes Rig Count, 1:00pm, ET

July 18: EIA Petroleum Status Report, 10:30am, ET

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