| SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS ( 9:30 am ET ) | |||
| DIRTY TANKER (KT - $/day) | VOYAGE | SPOT TCE EARNINGS | 2018 AVG. RATE |
| VLCC, 270 | AG-FE | 9,500 | 9,300 |
| Suezmax, 130 | WAF-UKC | 2,400 | 1,000 |
| Aframax, 70 | CAR-USG | 1,900 | 6,300 |
| Panamax, 50 | CAR-USG | 5,200 | 6,600 |
| CLEAN TANKER (KT - $/day) | VOYAGE | SPOT TCE EARNINGS | 2018 AVG. RATE |
| MR, 37 | UKC-USAC | 100 | 7,700 |
| MR, 38 | USG-UKC | (400) | 1,400 |
| TIME CHARTER (KDWT) | 1YR ECO RATE ($/day) | NEWBUILD PRICE ($M ) | SECONDHAND 5YR PRICE ($M) |
| VLCC , 200+ | 26,000 | 88.0 | 61.5 |
| Suezmax, 130-200 | 17,750 | 60.0 | 41.0 |
| Aframax, 80-130 | 16,500 | 48.0 | 30.0 |
| LR2, 80-130 | 16,750 | 50.0 | 31.0 |
| LR1, 60-80 | 13,750 | 42.0 | 28.0 |
| MR, 42-60 | 13,750 | 35.5 | 26.5 |
| Handymax. 30-42 | 12,750 | 33.0 | 23.0 |
| US FLAG (KT - $/day) | VOYAGE | WEEKLY SPOT RATE | 2018 AVG. RATE |
| Handy, 38 | USG-USAC | 60,039 | 63,811 |
| LNG ($/day) | WEEKLY SPOT RATE | CURRENT MONTH RATE | 2018 AVG. RATE |
| 160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (West) | 76,000 | 76,000 | 65,185 |
| 138-150M3 Steam turbine (West) | 58,000 | 58,000 | 44,481 |
| 160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (East) | 65,000 | 65,000 | 54,222 |
| 138-150M3 Steam turbine (East) | 45,000 | 45,000 | 35,407 |
| LPG (KT) | LAST POSTED SPOT RATE ($/mt) | SPOT TCE RATE ($/day) | 1yr TIME CHARTER RATE ($/day) |
| VLGC, 44 (AG-Japan) | 37.57 | 18,092 | 16,447 |
| BUNKERS ($/mt) | IFO 380 | MDO | |
| US Gulf | 455.0 | 667.5 | |
| Rotterdam | 440.5 | 641.5 | |
| Singapore | 472.0 | 667.0 | |
US oil exports to India surge ahead of sanctions on Iran.
US crude oil exports to India hit a new record in June. So far this year, the volumes are already double last year's total as refiners in India seek to replace Iranian and Venezuelan barrels. India is expected to import more than 15 mbpd of US crude this year through July, compared to 8 mb in all of 2017. This could increase, particularly if China imposes levies on its US oil imports, which would reduce Chinese purchases and lower US crude prices. The government has told its refiners to prepare for drastic decreases or even zero Iranian crude. As a result, some Indian refiners have finished testing runs of US oil this year, often by mixing it with heavier grades than their plants typically process.
IEA warns of tightening spare oil capacity.
The International Energy Agency said spare oil production capacity risks being "stretched to the limit" as global supply disruptions and US sanctions on Iran tighten the market. While rising oil prices may hinder demand growth, the key risk for the moment was supply capacity. The IEA estimates that only 2.1 mbpd of readily available spare capacity in three OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE. If Saudi Arabia raises output to near 11 mbpd this summer, as it has indicated, this would reduce the kingdom's spare capacity to "unprecedented" levels.
FT July 12, 2018
Crude prices fall in rising trade war China.
Crude fell by the most in twoyears, futures down 7%, as the US-China trade war escalates with planned US tariffs on Chinese goods of $200B. Last week, US stockpiles fell by 12.6 mb, while oil imports in the largest American refining region (TX and LA) dropped by 1.13 mb, the most in half a decade, and Libya announced plans to unleash more crude exports. Concern among some analysts is that trade tensions will drive the global economy into a slowdown and impact oil demand. The sectors targeted by tariffs in both countries include metals, energy and agricultural products. China has seven weeks to reach a deal or else face the looming tariffs.
Alaska officials remain confident on China natural gas partnership.
State officials said they were sure China will help the state achieve its goal of building a pipeline to transport stranded natural gas from the North Slope to markets, despite the currently-escalating US-China tensions. China is expected to buy 75% of LNG shipped through the future pipeline. The $43B project would send natural gas from the North Slope by pipeline to a liquefaction plant in Southern Alaska. The field is expected to produce about 3.5 Bcf/d. US-China tariffs, however, may threaten the project's development.
| COMMODITIES, (9:45 am ET ) | ||||
| CRUDE | SOURCE | UNIT | LAST PRICE | Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE |
| Brent | ICE | $/bbl | 73.68 | 0.28 |
| WTI | NYMEX | $/bbl | 70.41 | 0.03 |
| Dubai (Spot) | Bloomberg | $/bbl | 72.55 | -1.83 |
| PRODUCTS | SOURCE | UNIT | LAST PRICE | Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE |
| RBOB Gasoline | NYMEX | ₵/gal | 207.18 | 1.04 |
| Heating Oil | NYMEX | ₵/gal | 210.60 | 0.52 |
| NATURAL GAS | SOURCE | UNIT | LAST PRICE | Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE |
| US Henry Hub | NYMEX | $/MMBtu | 2.81 | -0.02 |
| UK National Balancing Point | ICE | $/MMBtu | 7.50 | -0.21 |
| NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS | SOURCE | LAST PRICE (₵/gal) | LAST PRICE ($/mt) | Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE(₵/gal) |
| US Mont Belvieu Propane (Spot) | Bloomberg | 94.25 | 491.30 | -3.63 |
| PRICE SPREADS ($/bbl) | SOURCE | LAST PRICE | Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE | |
| Brent 3-2-1 Crack | ICE | 13.17 | 0.03 | |
| MARKETS, ( 9:45 am ET ) | ||||
| EQUITIES | REGION/COUNTRY | LAST VALUE | Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE | |
| S&P 500 | United States | 2,774.02 | -19.82 | |
| FTSE 100 | United Kingdom | 7,646.47 | 54.51 | |
| DAX | Germany | 12,453.91 | 36.78 | |
| Nikkei | Japan | 22,187.96 | 255.75 | |
| SH Composite | China | 2,837.66 | 59.89 | |
| CURRENCIES | REGION/COUNTRY | LAST VALUE | Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE | |
| £/$ | United Kingdom | 1.32 | 0.00 | |
| €/$ | European Union | 1.17 | 0.00 | |
| $/JPY ¥ | Japan | 112.40 | 0.40 | |
| $/CNY ¥ | China | 6.67 | -0.01 | |
MARKET ANALYSIS
- Asphalt: West Coast asphalt selling prices rose in the Rockies for July material last week. Demand stayed strong.
- LNG: In the west, while July European reloads remained attractive last week, limited shipping options stalled some discussions. Shipping discussions continued to focus on Atlantic basin multi month opportunities.
- LPG: Propane/propylene stocks increased by a shade under 2.9 mb last week, broadly in line with market expectations and a smaller build than observed the previous week at 4.3 mb.
- Oil prices rebound as IEA warns of output capacity limits.
- Wall street to recover as earnings hope to ease trade fears.
- Asian markets rise, led by Chinese indexes.
DOE US INVENTORY (mb)
| Product | Week ended July 6 | Δ Prior week | Δ Prior year |
| Crude | 405.25 | -12.63 | -90.10 |
| Distillate | 121.68 | 4.13 | -31.87 |
| Gasoline | 239.00 | -0.69 | 3.34 |
EIA US WEEKLY ENDING STOCKS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(July 7, 2017 - July 6, 2018)
