July 11, 2018 

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SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS

SHIPPING RATES & BUNKERS ( 9:15 am ET )
       
DIRTY TANKER (KT - $/day) VOYAGE SPOT TCE EARNINGS 2018 AVG. RATE
VLCC, 270   AG-FE 9,900 9,300
Suezmax, 130  WAF-UKC 2,000 1,000
Aframax, 70 CAR-USG 1,600 6,400
Panamax, 50  CAR-USG 4,900 6,600
       
CLEAN TANKER (KT - $/day) VOYAGE SPOT TCE EARNINGS 2018 AVG. RATE
MR, 37  UKC-USAC 0 7,700
MR, 38  USG-UKC (600) 1,400
       
TIME CHARTER (KDWT) 1YR ECO RATE ($/day) NEWBUILD PRICE ($M ) SECONDHAND 5YR PRICE ($M)
VLCC , 200+ 26,000 88.0 61.5
Suezmax, 130-200 17,750 60.0 41.0
Aframax, 80-130 16,500 48.0 30.0
LR2, 80-130 16,750 50.0 31.0
LR1, 60-80 13,750 42.0 28.0
MR, 42-60 13,750 35.5 26.5
Handymax. 30-42 12,750 33.0 23.0
       
US FLAG (KT - $/day) VOYAGE WEEKLY SPOT RATE 2018 AVG. RATE
Handy, 38 USG-USAC 60,039 63,811
       
LNG ($/day) WEEKLY SPOT RATE CURRENT MONTH RATE 2018 AVG. RATE
160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (West) 76,000 76,000 65,185
138-150M3 Steam turbine (West) 58,000 58,000 44,481
160M3 Tri-fuel diesel electric (East) 65,000 65,000 54,222
138-150M3 Steam turbine (East) 45,000 45,000 35,407
       
LPG (KT) LAST POSTED SPOT RATE ($/mt) SPOT TCE RATE ($/day)                         1yr TIME CHARTER RATE ($/day)                    
VLGC, 44 (AG-Japan) 38.93 18,092 16,447
       
BUNKERS ($/mt) IFO 380  MDO   
US Gulf 461.5 681.0  
Rotterdam 446.0 643.5  
Singapore 476.5 674.5  

ENERGY NEWS

Natural gas-fired electricity generation to near record highs this summer. 

According to the EIA, natural gas-fired power plants are expected to provide 37% of domestic electricity generation in the US during June through Aug. Meanwhile, the share of generation from coal-fired plants will continue its declining trend with a slight drop to 30% in the summer. These trends are primarily a result of sustained natural gas prices, increases in natural gas-fired capacity and retirement of coal-fired generating capacity. In 2015-2017, the cost of natural gas delivered to electric generators averaged $3.16 MMBtu, compared to $7.97 MMBtu in 2006-2008. Power plant operators added 5.4 GW of new natural gas-fired generating capacity during the first four months 2018 with an additional 15 GW to come online by year-end.

EIA July 11, 2018

Libyan NOC announces reopening of key oil export terminals.

The company said four export terminals were being reopened after eastern factions handed over the ports. This marks the end of a standoff that had shut down most of the country's oil output. However, the restart at key terminals Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, where workers were evacuated and storage tanks damaged will be gradual. The disruption caused by political turmoil threatened to keep offline as much as 850,000 bpd of Libyan oil, from previous production of a little over 1 mbpd.

Reuters July 11, 2018

India cuts oil imports from Iran in June, ahead of US sanctions.

India's oil imports from Iran fell to 529,000 bpd in June, a 16% decline from May. However, India's overall oil imports last month are up 10% from a year ago. After the US announced its planned pull-out of the nuclear deal, the Indian government, being Tehran's second biggest customer, asked refiners to prepare for drastic reduction or even zero Iranian oil imports. This signifies the seriousness of US efforts to pressure countries into reducing their Iranian oil imports to zero. In order to maintain their access to the US financial system, the refiners will want to comply with the limits.

Reuters July 11, 2018

Turkey faces energy loans of $51B.

Turkish power producers are quickly becoming one of the country's biggest risks to domestic banks following significant spending over the last 15-years on new power generation, distribution projects and deals. But, with the lira depreciating faster than they can raise electricity prices, some utilities earn less annually than what they have to repay in foreign-currency loans. Since 2010, the lira has fallen 69% against the dollar. Ultimately, of the $95B invested in the power sector since 2003, slightly more than 50% still needs to be repaid. This is 15% of the $340B owed by non-financial companies in foreign liabilities.

Bloomberg July 11, 2018

COMMODITIES

COMMODITIES, (9:21 am ET )
         
CRUDE SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
Brent  ICE $/bbl 77.20 -1.66
WTI NYMEX $/bbl 73.29 -0.82
Dubai (Spot) Bloomberg $/bbl 74.38 -1.87
         
PRODUCTS SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
RBOB Gasoline  NYMEX ₵/gal 212.94 -3.09
Heating Oil  NYMEX ₵/gal 218.86 -3.32
         
NATURAL GAS SOURCE UNIT LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
US Henry Hub  NYMEX $/MMBtu 2.80 0.02
UK National Balancing Point ICE $/MMBtu 7.77 -0.06
         
NATURAL GAS  LIQUIDS SOURCE LAST PRICE (₵/gal) LAST PRICE ($/mt) Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE(₵/gal)
US Mont Belvieu Propane (Spot) Bloomberg 97.88 510.22 1.75
         
PRICE SPREADS ($/bbl) SOURCE LAST PRICE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
Brent 3-2-1 Crack  ICE 12.54 0.30

MARKETS

MARKETS, ( 9:21 am ET )
         
EQUITIES REGION/COUNTRY LAST VALUE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
S&P 500 United States 2,793.84 9.67
FTSE 100 United Kingdom 7,596.96 -95.08
DAX Germany 12,422.93 -186.92
Nikkei Japan 21,932.21 -264.68
SH Composite China 2,777.77 -49.85
         
CURRENCIES REGION/COUNTRY LAST VALUE Δ PRIOR DAY CLOSE
£/$ United Kingdom 1.33 0.00
€/$ European Union 1.17 0.00
$/JPY ¥ Japan 111.16 0.16
$/CNY ¥ China 6.67 0.04

MARKET ANALYSIS

  • Asphalt: East Coast barge prices were firmer on a delivered basis last week, with FOB pricing steady.
  • LNG: Although the market was quiet last week, there were several new firm and tentative requirements in the Pacific as well as Middle East and Atlantic, both on the back of Project/Portfolio structural needs and FOB/DES tenders.
  • LPG: With the Baltic up by around $5pmt last week, traders have turned their Far-East-open tonnage towards the AG to avail of these premiums.
  • Oil prices fall as Libyan ports reopen.
  • European stocks drop by most in 2 weeks as US-China tensions escalate.

VESSELS ON ORDER KDWT (2018-2019+ delivery)

VESSEL Share of current fleet Vessel Share of current fleet
VLCC, 200+ 15% Panamax, 60-80 6%
Suezmax, 130 - 200 9% LR1, 60-80 6%
Aframax, 80-130 11% MR, 42-60 10%
LR2, 80-130 9% Handymax, 30 - 42 3%

5-YEAR OLD VESSEL PRICES (July 2014 - June 2018)

5 year old vessel prices July 5

POTEN EVENTS

Sept. 17-20: Gastech, Barcelona, Poten sponsoring. 

WORLD EVENTS

July 11: EIA  Petroleum Status Report, 10:30am, ET. 

July 12: EIA Natural Gas Report, 11:00am, ET.

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